PMP Tutorial › Module 4 · Process (50%) › Lesson 8

Process: Cost, EVM, Quality, Risk & Procurement

The second half of the Process domain — keeping the project on budget, on quality, and on top of risk and contracts. This lesson includes the Earned Value Management formulas you must memorise.

Cost estimating & budgeting

  • Analogous — top-down from a similar past project; fast, least accurate.
  • Parametric — rate-based (e.g. cost per unit × units).
  • Bottom-up — estimate each work package and sum; most accurate, most effort.
  • Three-point (PERT)(O + 4M + P) / 6 to account for uncertainty.

The cost baseline is the approved, time-phased budget. Contingency reserves cover known risks (inside the baseline); management reserves cover unknown risks (outside the baseline, controlled by management).

Earned Value Management (EVM)

Three measures drive EVM: PV (planned value), EV (earned value = % complete × BAC) and AC (actual cost). BAC is the total budget.

FormulaMeaningReading
CV = EV − ACCost VarianceNegative = over budget
SV = EV − PVSchedule VarianceNegative = behind
CPI = EV / ACCost Performance Index< 1 = over budget
SPI = EV / PVSchedule Performance Index< 1 = behind
EAC = BAC / CPIEstimate at CompletionForecast total cost
ETC = EAC − ACEstimate to CompleteRemaining cost
VAC = BAC − EACVariance at CompletionNegative = will overrun
TCPI = (BAC − EV)/(BAC − AC)To-Complete Perf. Index> 1 = must improve
Memory aid: EV always comes first. Subtraction = a variance; division = an index. Negative or below 1.0 is always "bad". The full worked example is in the complete guide.

Quality management

Plan quality in; don't inspect it in. Key ideas:

  • Cost of Quality (CoQ): conformance costs (prevention + appraisal) vs. non-conformance costs (internal + external failure). Prevention is cheaper than failure.
  • Quality vs grade: quality = meeting requirements; grade = feature level. Low quality is always a problem; low grade may be acceptable.
  • Seven basic tools: cause-and-effect (fishbone/Ishikawa), flowchart, check sheet, Pareto chart (80/20), histogram, control chart, scatter diagram.
  • Manage Quality (process/audits) vs Control Quality (inspecting deliverables for correctness).

Risk management

Plan risk → identify risks → analyse (qualitative then quantitative) → plan responses → implement → monitor.

  • Qualitative analysis prioritises risks using a probability/impact matrix; quantitative models them numerically (e.g. Monte Carlo, EMV = probability × impact).
  • Threat responses: avoid, transfer, mitigate, escalate, accept.
  • Opportunity responses: exploit, share, enhance, escalate, accept.
  • Track everything in the risk register; watch for secondary risks (caused by a response) and residual risks (left over after a response).

Procurement & contract types

The contract type decides who carries the cost risk:

TypeExamplesRisk sits with
Fixed PriceFFP, FPIF, FP-EPASeller
Cost ReimbursableCPFF, CPIF, CPAFBuyer
Time & MaterialsT&MShared (good for staff augmentation)
Note: Fixed price is safest for the buyer (the seller absorbs overruns) but needs well-defined scope. Cost-reimbursable suits uncertain scope but shifts cost risk to the buyer.